Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which prohibits non-nuclear states from acquiring nuclear weapons. That is the reason Iran’s enrichment of uranium has been under such intense scrutiny for many years. While international attention was focused on the nuclear issue, Iran quietly developed formidable ballistic missile and drone production capabilities. It has used those munitions to great effect in its current war with the U.S. and Israel.
At the start of the war, the U.K. refused to allow the U.S. to use its military bases to launch attacks on Iran. The Iranians had warned that any such collaboration with the Americans would make the U.K. a target in the war. After the British government granted permission and the U.S. subsequently attacked Iran from the U.S.-U.K. Diego Garcia military base in the Central Indian Ocean, Iran responded by firing missiles at the base, which is located 2,500 miles away from Iran.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Iran fired two of its largest (previously hidden) weapons at the Diego Garcia base. The newspaper went on to say that it “revealed the Islamic Republic had longer-range missiles than many analysts had realized—and a leadership that was no longer interested in hiding them.”
President Trump has argued that previous U.S. presidents were negligent for ignoring the Iranian threat not only to its neighbors in the Middle East, particularly Israel, but to America’s European allies and ultimately to the U.S. homeland. He said he launched the war against Iran now to prevent it from becoming an even greater menace over time.
Every nation has the right to defend its borders against external attacks. Such exogenous threats are often posed by neighboring countries. It is clear, however, that the Iranian regime had been preparing for decades to take on the West. It heavily drained the country’s oil wealth to build the sophisticated weapons, including long-range types, that it is currently employing in the war.
In putting together national military budgets, governments have to consider a myriad of factors, the most important of which is how much they can afford to spend on defense. It is no different from what individuals and families do when they buy any type of insurance. Rich folks are able to cover a lot more risk than those of us who are less affluent.
Countries like the U.S. and China spend hundreds of billions of dollars each year on their militaries because they can afford to. Despite those vast outlays on defense, America retains the ability to provide jobs, education, healthcare and other basic necessities for its citizens. The size and composition of the U.S. economy make that possible.
It is frankly quite suicidal for countries like Iran and North Korea that have relatively small economies to attempt to take on the West. I’m not even sure that North Korea has anything that can be called a national economy. It is singularly focused on building deadly weapons, and appears to spend everything it has in that pursuit.
Our world is filled with injustice, both current and historical. Because none of us have enough resources to fight every single injustice we face, we all have to choose our battles carefully. There are many countries in Iran’s neighborhood that similarly don’t like America, primarily because of its support for Israel on the Palestinian issue. But they haven’t let their grievances consume them to the extent that it has with Iran.
Based on everything that I have seen, heard and read over the years, and in particular the last few months, it is clear to me that the overwhelming majority of ordinary Iranians want their leaders to focus a lot less on confrontation with the West. They are more interested in having a better functioning national economy that will provide them jobs and life’s basic necessities.
President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vastly overestimated their ability to bring about regime change in Iran. Despite the killings of several of the country’s top leaders, it appears now that the regime will survive. Many commentators have pointed to that, and Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, as evidence that America has suffered a defeat and the regime is victorious. Even if that ends up being the final outcome, it will be a Pyrrhic victory.
Iran’s economy was already in tatters before the war. Reckless waste of resources over many decades to build weapons, debilitating sanctions, and massive levels of corruption, have all taken a heavy toll. The war has added to that misery. Enormous damage has been inflicted on the country’s infrastructure—both military and civilian. The surviving regime will struggle mightily to find the money needed to resuscitate the economy.
If the two-week ceasefire holds, the Iranian regime should use that pause to reflect on these two simple questions. One: Was putting everything they had into preparing all those years to take on the West worth all that cost? Two: If they choose to rearm after this war ends, how sustainable, in their view, would that path be?
For the sake of the long-suffering Iranian population, the regime should take the next few weeks and months to engage in that sober reflection and do a course correction. It should think about emulating Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain and the rest of Iran’s neighbors that have chosen a modernization path.