In the last few years, there have been whispers among some China watchers that Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered the country’s military to be prepared to invade Taiwan and reunify it with China sometime in 2027. But a recent article published by the U.S. Naval Institute (USNI) News quoted a March 2026 U.S. intelligence report stating that “Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification.”
I am hearing more and more people say that some of President Trump’s recent actions have increased the probability that China will move on Taiwan in the very near future. The thinking is that if U.S. forces can swoop into Caracas and capture the sitting president of Venezuela, and if President Trump can threaten to take Greenland by force, then America would have no moral right to intervene if China were to attempt a forceful takeover of Taiwan.
There is good logic to that argument, but I have a different view.
One of the biggest problems China has faced in the last couple of decades is its less-than-cordial relationship with the West. America and its allies have consistently accused China of engaging in unfair trade practices. Ideological differences, and Xi Jinping’s enabling of Russia’s war on Ukraine, have further isolated China. That frosty relationship has had significant negative consequences for China’s economy.
Suddenly, the pendulum seems to have swung in China’s favor. Within a short period of time, President Trump has managed to antagonize so many of America’s traditional allies that it is now the U.S. that looks like a nation without friends. Today, there is talk everywhere that America has become a danger to the world. In this new environment, China is increasingly being seen as a stabilizing force, a role the U.S. had played for nearly a century.
The leaders of Britain, Germany, France, Canada and several other countries have all made recent trips to China to meet with Xi Jinping. Neil Thomas, a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, was quoted in a recent Bloomberg article as saying that “World leaders are heading to Beijing because they increasingly see China as a hedge against an unpredictable United States.” Thomas adds that “Many want Beijing to play a larger role as a defender of stability, diplomacy, and an open global economy.”
President Trump has handed his Chinese counterpart a great gift. Mr. Xi probably can’t believe his luck. My sense is that he is going to try to get as much mileage as he can from his newfound status as the world’s premiere statesman. That is why I find it highly unlikely that he would jeopardize all of that by ordering an invasion of Taiwan anytime soon.